The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has confirmed that the 2026 March–April–May long rains have started in several parts of the country, including central, western, highland regions, and Nairobi County.
The early rainfall marks a critical period for agriculture, water resources, and food security.
KMD reported that southeastern lowlands and the South Coast began receiving rains in the last week of February, while northwestern and northeastern counties are expected to experience rainfall between late March and early April.
The North Coast, including Lamu and Kilifi, is likely to see a delayed onset around mid-April, despite occasional early-season showers.
In a statement released on February 24, 2026, KMD outlined that the long rains are considered to have started once a region records at least 20 millimeters of rainfall over three consecutive days, with no dry spell exceeding seven days afterward.
“Rainfall that is currently being experienced is likely to continue into early March 2026 and is expected to meet the onset criteria over several regions,” the statement read.
Meteorologists attribute the early-season rains to favorable atmospheric conditions, including enhanced convective activity linked to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is expected to temporarily boost moisture and rainfall amounts in parts of the country during late February and early March.
However, KMD warned that the MJO could shift to less favorable phases from mid-March, raising the chances of dry spells in some areas.
The department advised farmers and other stakeholders to use this forecast alongside daily, five-day, seven-day, monthly, and special forecasts issued by KMD, as well as county-level updates.
“This outlook should be used together with the 24-hour, 5-day, 7-day, monthly and special forecasts, as well as regular updates and advisories issued by this Department, in addition to the Weekly and Monthly County forecasts developed and disseminated by the County Meteorological Offices,” KMD said.
Farmers are also encouraged to seek guidance from agricultural extension officers when making decisions.
Several counties have already met the onset criteria.
In the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Central, and South Rift Valley—counties such as Bungoma, Uasin Gishu, Kakamega, Kisumu, and Nakuru have recorded sufficient rainfall. Similarly, counties in the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, and Meru, have also met the criteria.
Other regions, including southeastern lowlands, North Coast, South Coast, Northwest, and Northeastern counties, have varying onset timelines as detailed in KMD’s schedule.
Edward Muriuki, Acting Director of KMD, emphasized that regular updates on seasonal performance and climate drivers, including the MJO and potential tropical cyclones, will guide stakeholders in adapting to changing rainfall patterns.
“These updates will offer detailed insights into evolving rainfall patterns, thereby keeping stakeholders informed and supporting timely and informed decision-making,” he said.
As Kenya enters this critical long rains season, KMD encourages continued monitoring and preparedness to safeguard agriculture, water resources, and food security.
